The floating platform sector has undergone steady growth over the last five years. However, whilst a number of key projects are anticipated to generate substantial Capex demand over 2015, with low oil prices and uncertainty across some regions, Infield Systems remains cautious regarding the progress of some of the more capital intensive deepwater developments over the forthcoming year. Infield Systems’ Floating Production Systems Market Report provides detailed analysis of this important sector over the period 2009-2018.
Offshore Latin America, Brazil accounts for a 90% share of regional demand; whilst the region as a whole is anticipated to drive global FPS demand with a 35% market share during 2015. Infield Systems forecasts Latin America’s leading share to decrease to 25% decrease over the period, with a low of 25% in 2018. This is the result of a number of capital intensive developments seeing completion during 2014, including Sapinhoa North and Iracema Sul. During 2015, Infield Systems expects capital expenditure to be predominantly directed towards FPSO developments offshore Brazil, which are likely to comprise 84% of regional demand during the year. Key projects attracting investment during the year offshore Brazil include: Buzios, Lula Central and Lula West. Infield Systems also expects expenditure on the Ayatsil-Tekel FPSO to take place offshore Mexico. Over the longer term, with the PEMEX energy reforms finally coming to fruition, the prospectivity of Mexico’s deepwater fields is also expected to increase. 2015 is also likely to see continued investment on Colombia’s FLNG project, Caribbean FLNG, developed by Exmar and the new Cartagena FSRU.
Asia is forecast to hold the second largest share (18%) of global FPS expenditure during 2015. This is expected to be largely driven by FLNG developments, with projects including the Petronas PFLNG 1 and PFLNG 2 FPSO facilities and the Abadi FLNG FPSO all anticipated to require substantial investment during the year. Indeed, across the region Infield Systems expects FLNG projects to comprise 31% of total 2015 FPS expenditure. Driven by its capital intensive FLNG projects, Malaysia is expected to drive expenditure with a 37% share of regional FPS demand, followed by Indonesia with a 31% share during the year. Infield Systems has recently published its latest Asia Market Report to 2019, which provides more detail on the market in this specific region.
Offshore Africa Angola is expected to continue to lead FPS development throughout 2015 with a 43% share of regional Capex demand. Key projects expected to demand significant expenditure during the year include the Kaombo North FPSO and the Cameia FPSO, operated by Total and Cobalt respectively. However, with the recent drop in oil prices, deepwater developments such as these are now coming under review, with Maersk rethinking its stake in Chissonga in particular. Elsewhere within the region, Infield Systems also expects significant expenditure to take place on the Total-operated Egina FPSO and the Moho Nord TLWP projects, located offshore Nigeria and Congo (Brazzaville) respectively. Indeed, Infield Systems expects the French IOC to increase its dominant share of regional floating platform Capex demand from 47% over 2014 to 53% over 2015.
Australasia is expected to contribute a 13% share of global FPS Capex demand during 2015, with a total of six developments anticipated to require investment during the year. Once again FLNG FPSO projects are expected to comprise a substantial share of demand, with the Shell operated Prelude FLNG forecast to require the highest Capex during the year. Inpex’s Ichthys semi-submersible development, anticipated to be installed during the course of 2016, is expected to be the second most capital intensive development taking place in the region during 2015 after Prelude, at a water depth of 230 metres, the development also includes an FPSO installation and is expected to bring a total of 8.4 mtpa of gas to the market. Infield Systems also expects possible Capex spend to take place on the Cash/Maple FLNG FPSO and the Brecknock FLNG FPSO during 2015.
Europe is expected to account for 9% of global FPS Capex demand during 2015, with Norway likely to account for a 68% regional market share. Statoil’s Aasta Hansteen Spar is anticipated to drive investment demand during the year, with a 47% share of regional FPS spend. Infield Systems also forecasts Capex demand on a further 16 projects across the region including seven FPSO developments; the highest Capex demand of which is expected to relate to the BP Glen Lyon Quad 204 FPSO and the Enquest-operated Kraken and Eni’s Goliat Sevan 1000 FPSO, the latter of which is anticipated to see completion during the year.
North America is forecast to contribute a 5% share of global floating platform Capex during 2015. Semi-submersible projects are anticipated to require the highest demand. However, with the decrease in oil price, capital intensive projects, such as the Buckskin/Moccasin semi-submersible development, operated by Chevron, are likely to see delays. Infield Systems also expects substantial FPSO investment on developments including Shell’s Walker Ridge Stones FPSO and the Kitimat FLNG offshore British Colombia. However, once again the project faces challenges; although progressing well, with the news that partner Apache is looking to sell its 50% stake in the project, finding a partner for the development may prove difficult in the current climate.
The Middle East and Caspian region is expected to form 3% of global FPS expenditure demand during 2015. Whilst remaining a marginal region in terms of FPS development, with activities in the Levant Basin increasing, Infield Systems expects expenditure to rise over the medium term. During 2015, Noble’s Tamar FLNG FPSO (King Project) offshore Israel is anticipated to demand the highest Capex, followed by the operator’s Leviathan FPSO development which could see completion before the close of 2018. Elsewhere in the region during 2015, Infield Systems expects FPS Capex to be required offshore Kazakhstan for barge units, Iran and Jordan for possible FPSO and FSRU units.